Research

Critical Peak Rewards: Evidence from a Nationwide Demand Response Program

with Robert D. Metcalfe and Andrew Schein

NBER Working Paper No. 35485

A natural field experiment with 2.7 million participants in the world's first nationwide demand flexibility programme, examining how financial incentives shaped participation in 16 winter peak-reduction events. Compliers cut demand by 23.1% during events, at a system cost of roughly £2,325 per MWh; adoption of solar, batteries, heat pumps, and EVs was associated with greater demand response capability.

The Impact of Dynamic Prices on Electric Vehicle Public Charging Demand: Evidence from a Nationwide Natural Field Experiment

with Andy Hackett, Robert D. Metcalfe, Luca Panzone, and Andrew Schein

NBER Working Paper No. 34600

A nationwide natural field experiment with approximately 110,000 EV public-charging users, identifying the elasticity of charging demand to dynamic prices. Findings informed Octopus Energy's launch of an equivalent dynamic-pricing product in the French market.

Early Warnings Coverage, Determinants of Reception, and Benefits

with C. Beaudet, Bramka Arga Jafino, and Paolo Avner

World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

Decarbonizing Heat: The Impact of Heat Pumps and a Time-of-Use Heat Pump Tariff on Energy Demand

with Andy Hackett, Robert D. Metcalfe, and Andrew Schein

NBER Working Paper No. 33036 — Conditional Accept, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

A UK natural field experiment finding that heat pumps cut household gas use by 98% and lifetime carbon emissions by 72%, while a dedicated time-of-use tariff halves electricity use during the evening peak — even on the coldest days — and cuts annual bills by 18%. The UK's Boiler Upgrade Scheme subsidy returns £1.23 in societal benefit for every £1 spent.

Nowhere Else to Go? Urbanisation and Flood Risks in China: The Role of Land Scarcity

with Paolo Avner, Jun Rentschler, and Capucine Riom

World Bank — Global Facility for Disaster Reduction & Recovery

Causal evidence on how land scarcity drives urbanisation into flood-exposed areas, combining large-scale geospatial data with quasi-experimental identification. Conducted under the World Bank Sustainable Development Fellowship.

The Impact of Segregated Cycling Lanes on Road Users

SSRN Working Paper No. 4353625

Event-study analysis of the Cycle Superhighways roll-out in central London (2014–2019), finding that segregated lanes raised cycling traffic by about 25% on opening and a further 20% per year, with a substantial fall in cyclist accidents and no detectable impact on car traffic.

Rapid Urban Growth in Flood Zones

with Jun Rentschler, Paolo Avner, Mattia Marconcini, R. Su, Emanuele Strano, Stéphane Hallegatte, and others

World Bank

The Impact of Floods on Retrospective Voting in England

with Allan Beltran and Karlygash Kuralbayeva

Working paper

Quasi-experimental analysis of how flood exposure shifts retrospective voting behaviour in English local elections, using staggered difference-in-differences on ward-level panels.

The Urban Wage Premium in Africa

with Patricia Jones and Olivia D'Aoust

Chapter in Wage Inequality in Africa, pp. 33–53

The Urban Land Market: A Computable Equilibrium Model Applied to Kampala City

with Julia Bird and Anthony J. Venables

Unpublished manuscript, University of Oxford